Global ad spend to hit $1.08 trillion in 2024 as digital and TV grow: WARC

Global advertising expenditure is on track to grow by 10.7% in 2024, reaching an unprecedented $1.08 trillion, according to the latest report from WARC.

This growth represents the strongest rate in six years, excluding the exceptional 27.9% rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. The forecast, which is a slight upgrade of 0.2 percentage points from WARC’s previous projection in August, reflects an industry bolstered by digital innovation and a modest resurgence in traditional media.

The study, which aggregates data from 100 markets worldwide, highlights the scale and pace of change within the advertising landscape. Ad investment has more than doubled over the past decade, growing 2.8 times faster than global economic output since 2014. WARC’s neural network model (developed for this report) integrates over two million data points, including media owner revenues, advertiser budgets, and macroeconomic indicators.

Digital advertising continues to dominate the market, accounting for a growing share of global spend. Pure-play internet platforms, encompassing digital giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, are projected to capture $741.4 billion this year—equivalent to 68.8% of the total market. Within this, social media remains the largest individual segment, generating $252.7 billion, or 23.5% of global ad spend. Stronger-than-expected performances from Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok in the year’s first nine months have contributed to a robust 19.3% growth forecast for social platforms in 2024.

Traditional media, while increasingly eclipsed by digital, has shown signs of resilience. Linear TV advertising is forecast to grow by 1.9% this year to $153.6 billion, following two consecutive years of decline. This rebound has been driven in part by significant political advertising in the United States during the fourth quarter, as well as global events such as the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament. However, TV’s share of the advertising market has dwindled significantly, from 41.3% in 2013 to just 14.3% today, signalling the ongoing shift toward digital-first strategies.

Tech is on the rise...or is it?

Retail media is emerging as another critical driver of growth, with ad spend in this category expected to hit $154.8 billion globally in 2024. During the holiday season alone, retail media platforms are forecast to attract $46.2 billion in advertising spend, marking a 16.4% increase from the previous year. Amazon continues to lead the sector, capturing an estimated $16.9 billion in Q4 ad revenues. 

While growth projections for 2024 and beyond remain healthy—ad spend is expected to rise by 7.6% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026—WARC’s report highlights several potential headwinds. The US Department of Justice’s recent ruling that Google holds a monopoly over the global search market could significantly disrupt one of the industry’s key revenue streams. Google, which accounts for 90.1% of all search advertising outside China, is forecast to generate $197.7 billion in 2024. The DOJ ruling may force the tech giant to cease default search engine payments to device manufacturers, potentially upending its $30 billion annual operating costs. Despite these challenges, WARC has maintained its forecast of 9.0% growth for Google’s ad revenues in 2025 while the company navigates ongoing legal and regulatory scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Apple’s growing search advertising business, currently estimated to generate $5.1 billion annually through platforms like its App Store, is positioning the tech giant as a potential challenger in this space. However, high operational costs and strategic misalignment may deter Apple from developing its own search engine. Similarly, Elon Musk’s X, which is actively seeking new revenue streams after losing $5.9 billion in ad revenue since its 2022 takeover, could emerge as a leftfield entrant, though the platform’s viability as a search competitor remains uncertain.

TikTok, another major player in the digital advertising ecosystem, also faces mounting regulatory challenges. The Canadian government recently ordered the platform to wind down its operations in Canada, citing national security concerns. While this has yet to dampen TikTok’s global growth—its advertising revenue is projected to rise 25.9% this year to $24.6 billion—the platform’s long-term future remains uncertain. Advertisers are watching closely as legal proceedings unfold, with potential spillover effects on competitors such as Instagram and YouTube.

End of year outlook

Seasonal trends mark a significance in Q4 in the advertising calendar. Advertisers worldwide are expected to spend $299.2 billion during the final quarter of the year, with over half of this figure driven by the holiday season. Retailers alone will contribute $45.6 billion in Q4 ad spend, with nearly a quarter of this allocated to connected TV platforms.

James McDonald, director of data, Intelligence, and Forecasting at WARC, emphasised the significance of these figures, stating: “Our latest forecast anticipates $104 billion in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 is excluded. However, whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, given heightened regulatory pressures on major players like Google and TikTok and an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate.”