Regulation
As 3G and 4G subscriber bases continue to grow in Asia-Pacific, the limited spectrum available to operators will be an increasingly contentious issue in the region. Frost & Sullivan predicts a call for more bands, particularly in the 700-MHz band, to be made available to mobile operators. On the fixed-broadband side, national broadband plans are well underway in Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and Malaysia, with Indonesia becoming the most recent country to announce such a plan. Einstein believes more countries will follow suit, starting with Thailand, Vietnam, and India.
M&A activity
Frost & Sullivan expects M&A activity in the region to drop compared with the past few years. However, spectrum shortages may drive some transactions. "In markets like India, Indonesia, Cambodia, and potentially Vietnam, where market overcrowding has led to big losses for market laggards, a new trend that will emerge is that an operator's spectrum assets will be valued considerably higher due to the need for more mobile broadband spectrum," said the forecast.
Smartphones
This year will be a "do or die" one for Nokia and Japanese vendors, according to the report. Nokia and Windows' tie up has gotten favourable reviews at CES and the manufacturer has to be able to leverage this to stay afloat in the region. Similarly, Japan's handset manufacturers will need to make a serious effort to expand outside their domestic market as Softbank, KDDI, and NTT DoCoMo are expected to carry the iPhone 5 when it launches later this year. RIM's brand remains strong across Southeast Asia but is plagued by regulatory problems, while LG will have to come up with a new strategy to avoid being pushed out of the smartphone space.
Mobile broadband
While LTE licensing is expected to proceed more smoothly than 3G licensing has done in the past, it's still going to be a slow process. However, the research firm takes it as a good sign that China and India have already started deployments and expects Malaysia, New Zealand, and Taiwan will sort out licensing and launch commercially in late 2012 or early 2013.
Mobile payments
Mobile payment technology, still in its infancy, will become more popular thanks to technologies like NFC (near field communication). The business model has a way to go as only Japan, Singapore, and South Korea are encouraging adoption. SMS-based payments, money transfers, and remittances are what will comprise the bulk of activity outside Japan in 2012.
Mobile advertising
Japan's mobile advertising market has long dominated Asia's revenues, but this is quickly changing due to the rise of smartphones in the region. While SMS-based models are still largely popular, there is a sweeping migration to banner ads in progress. What is perhaps more interesting is the fact that new business models such as idle-display advertising, augmented reality services, and better data analytics are being used to bring the market to the next level.
Tablet PCs
Apple will continue to reign in this sector, but there is room for competition, particularly at lower price points, according to the report. "While we think that the Amazon [Kindle] Fire will certainly appeal in the West, e-readers are not as popular in Asia, and we think sales volumes will be lower in this region," the report says.
Mobile operating systems
Android leapfrogged iOS in key markets Japan and South Korea last year, while RIM's OS still holds the lead in many Southeast Asian countries. Apple dominates in Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Google's purchase of Motorola's mobile device division may push Korean vendors toward Windows Mobile or homegrown OS Bada, however.
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