Users find social networks vital for work and leisure

It was not too long ago, after all, that the likes of Friendster, Bebo and MySpace were in the ascendency. Then the new upstarts arrived and quickly took away much of their shine.

But if the current social networking giants do start to peak, where will the next great media phenomenon emerge?

At the moment in Asia-Pacific Facebook has little to fear. ComScore rates it as the number one social networking site (SNS) in nine out of 12 markets here. Japan (Mixi), Korea (Cyword), India (Orkut) and Taiwan (Wretch) are the exceptions, while the Great Firewall means that Facebook is completely out of the running in mainland China.

But nothing is permanent and Simon Cousins, group chief executive of Illuminant Partners, points to similar shifts in the world of computing, where even a long-term dominant player such as Microsoft can now be challenged. "Microsoft is increasingly irrelevant to new generations' computing experience," he adds. "Companies, brands, products and applications are transforming. All aspects of business are inevitably changing."

While SNS as they are currently experienced may eventually lessen in importance, the social aspect will remain. Humans are social animals and whether this manifests itself through chats at the water coolers, on websites or on an as yet, unknown platform, the fact is that people like to talk and, more often than not, about themselves.

"Don't confuse Facebook and Twitter with the staggeringly important idea of social media," says Cousins. "These SNS may see their sun set, but social media is here to stay. While the world of content progressively moves from broadcasting to narrowcasting models, we see social media continuing into narrower interest."

With this in mind, Napoleon Biggs, senior VP and head of digital integration Asia-Pacific for Fleishman-Hillard Hong Kong, argues that the next big thing could be online business networking.

"Business lives have too many emails. People are switching to instant messaging and LinkedIn," he says.

Biggs points out that social media can add a touch of glamour to business. Twitter has identified this and has already launched its Twitter Business Centre and @Earlybird platforms.

Technology will certainly play its part, with new platforms directly effecting the kind of content with which consumers want to interact. The iPad, is the most obvious candidate. "The iPad has really changed the way consumers take in content," says Herbert Lam, senior digital manager of UM Hong Kong. "It could be another revolutionary piece of technology from Apple."

Instead of looking for the next Facebook, Antony Yiu, managing director of Hong Kong and regional search director of North Asia at iProspect, says that attention should be focused on identifying the next big app.

"With the advent of the iPhone, iPad and other smartphones, you can see that people are going beyond websites," he says. "All the SNS receive much more traffic from people accessing via apps, rather that directly from URLs."

New delivery methods will also have an impact, as SNS users become more sophisticated and demanding in how they want to receive and share their content.

"The next big thing will be the change in how consumers are accessing content," says Lam. "There is too much information and content for consumers. It's time for change. It may not be immediate, but the content and our interaction with it will evolve."

Euan Wilcox, business director of digital marketing agency The Upper Storey, believes that future social networks will be embedded into content.

"Leanback and Flipboard, for instance, are just personalised content, based on usage and social networks," he says. "So, maybe we have to revisit that old chestnut and say real, dynamic, interactive content will be king."

This article was originally published in the 12 August 2010 issue of Media.