Ecommerce sales in APAC to hit $3.2 trillion by 2028: Forrester

Forrester’s ‘Global Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 To 2028’ provides retail sales data covering both online and offline markets across 40 countries. These countries represent 88% of the global GDP, and their values are reported in both local currencies and USD. 

The report finds that while ecommerce is well-established in advanced economies like the US, the UK, and South Korea, thanks to high internet use and digital literacy, emerging markets in the Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America are rapidly catching up.  

This growth is fuelled by increasing smartphone use and mobile commerce, reshaping the global ecommerce scene and opening new opportunities for both businesses and consumers. 

Key findings

The report highlighted the number of ecommerce sales broken down into different regions 

Asia Pacific:

• In Asia Pacific, online retail sales for the top five countries—China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia—are expected to increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028, with China leading the region.  
• China and South Korea are the top two countries globally in terms of ecommerce penetration and will each have online retail penetration of more than 40% by 2028. 
• In Southeast Asia’s top six countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, retail ecommerce sales reached $93 billion in 2023 and will rise to $193 billion by 2028 to capture 17.4% of total retail sales.  
• Indonesia leads the region in online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam will see a CAGR of more than 20% over the next five years, outpacing other countries in the region. 

The Americas: 

• In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales. 
• Ecommerce is more mature in the US than in Canada, with Canadian online retail sales expected to reach $83 billion by 2028. Canada lags behind the US in ecommerce penetration due to lower population density, a smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption. 
• In Latin America, online retail sales in the top six countries—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile—will grow from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion by 2028. 

Europe:

• In western European countries—including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK—online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration increasing from 15% to 20%.  
• The UK will continue to be the biggest market for retail ecommerce, followed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. 
• In Eastern Europe, online retail penetration is half that of Western Europe. Forrester forecasts that online retail sales for the top five Eastern European countries—Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary—will increase from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the region.